Middle East Geopolitics : Tensions, Transformations and The Path Towards Peace

By Najmuddin A Farooqi :

In today’s rapidly advancing technological landscape, developing nations face the challenge of keeping pace with more established economies. Among these, several oil-rich Arab nations, particularly Saudi Arabia, have embarked on ambitious efforts to diversify their economies, investing heavily in infrastructure and the global tourism industry. Leading this shift, Saudi Arabia, under the guidance of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), has committed to a transformation from an oil-dependent economy toward a more diversified model. This shift aligns with the country’s Vision 2030, which seeks to bolster economic resilience and elevate Saudi Arabia’s role on the world stage.

However, while some nations are progressing, others remain constrained by internal challenges. Several autocratic regimes in the Middle East maintain power by financing and arming sectarian militias that operate across borders to pursue specific agendas. These non-state actors frequently carry out targeted attacks from both domestic and international bases. Although these actions are often attributed to certain ideologies, the perception of militant groups arising predominantly from Sunni Wahhabi Islam has been challenged, with some suggesting that this narrative has been strategically constructed to divert attention from other countries’ roles in fostering extremism. Social media amplifies these narratives, and recent campaigns have focused on portraying MBS and Saudi Arabia negatively, even linking them to the conflict in Palestine.

Certain states with outwardly democratic appearances also face scrutiny for their centralized control. In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wields considerable influence over key state institutions, including the judiciary and military. Since the escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict on October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched an incursion into Israel, the violence has claimed tens of thousands of lives, predominantly Palestinian civilians. Although the United Nations has passed numerous resolutions condemning the violence, tangible progress has been limited. Nations like Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia have actively sought international support for a ceasefire and advocate for a two-state solution, underscoring the importance of sustainable peace and civilian protection.

The conflict has seen several key developments:

• On October 7, 2023, Hamas militants attacked Israel, causing numerous casualties and taking hostages.
• On October 27, Israel retaliated with airstrikes in Gaza, resulting in significant casualties.
• Initial claims of Iranian support for Hamas were later denied by Iranian officials.
• On November 20, Yemen’s Houthi forces seized a British cargo ship and escalated attacks against Israeli and international vessels.
• Hezbollah in Lebanon began firing missiles at Israel, heightening regional tensions.
• The UN Security Council passed resolutions against Israel's actions, which were largely blocked by the United States, while Qatar and the UAE advocated for an end to the aggression.
• High-profile incidents continued into 2024, with prominent Hezbollah and IRGC leaders killed in Israeli strikes.

The motivations behind Hamas’s October 7 attack have sparked debate: was it a reaction to decades of suffering, or a tactic to disrupt peace talks between the United States and Saudi Arabia, which aim to foster dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Israel under a two-state solution? These questions remain central to understanding Hamas’s strategic objectives. However, the scale of devastation experienced in Gaza and the surrounding region since the attack may surpass anything seen over the past 75 years. This timing is notable, given ongoing U.S.-Saudi negotiations that include cooperation on Saudi Arabia’s nuclear energy program, potentially balancing regional power. The talks also envision Saudi-Israeli dialogue conditioned on the recognition of a two-state solution within the 1967 borders.

Despite reports tying Iran to the conflict, Tehran has denied involvement, though Hezbollah and Houthi escalations have followed Israel’s airstrikes. Hezbollah, funded and trained by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has a long-standing allegiance to Iran, as reflected in its manifesto pledging obedience to Iran’s late leader Ayatollah Khomeini. According to a recent survey, 55% of Lebanese citizens distrust Hezbollah, reflecting divisions within Lebanon. Hezbollah’s leaders have continued to use sectarian rhetoric, referring to some Sunni groups as “takfiris” and vowing to eliminate Israel.

In contrast, Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations have avoided divisive rhetoric, promoting dialogue instead of conflict. However, instability in the region has increased significantly over the past year, with Israel facing fewer losses compared to the combined toll on groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Syria. Although Iran launched missiles at Israel following the assassination of Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah, a broader conflict remains unlikely due to Iran’s domestic challenges, economic instability, and relatively limited military capabilities. The U.S. has advised both Israel and Iran to avoid further escalation.

For Palestinians, the ongoing violence has offered little tangible benefit. Despite Hamas and its allies’ attempts to assert their influence, a sustainable future for Palestinian people remains elusive, with the reconstruction process expected to take decades. Nevertheless, global opinion, which has broadly condemned Israel’s actions, persists as a potential catalyst for change. The Arab League, Saudi Arabia, and other key players have sought diplomatic paths, advocating stability over the escalation that could lead to catastrophic regional outcomes. A united Arab and Muslim stance might be the only viable path to a two-state solution, providing hope for a peaceful resolution based on the pre-1967 borders.

Modern warfare, with advanced missile capabilities, allows nations to inflict damage at a distance, but the high civilian casualties emphasize the harsh realities of conflict. This tragedy has spotlighted the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, where civilian casualties have reached an estimated 80-90%. While Israel has faced international scrutiny for its actions, its leaders, including Netanyahu, may also be held accountable under international law, as targeting civilians contravenes the Geneva Convention and constitutes a war crime.

Today’s world is marked by the influence of authoritarian regimes, radical factions, and proxy forces aligned with major states. However, the ongoing humanitarian crises have sparked hope for change, with many seeing an end to extremism on the horizon. As the conflict approaches a crucial juncture, the pursuit of a stable, peaceful, and inclusive future is more pressing than ever.